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The Economy: An Outsider's Perspective
It has been a common and vocal complaint of many players as of late that the economy is a mess. Whereas before, with the static economy, it was absurdly easy to make oodles of cash very quickly, in the new dynamic economy it is too difficult to raise even a nominal sum.
The fact of the matter is that in the dynamic economy, the demand for goods is not particularly robust; after a few moth-loads, the bottom of the market falls out, and it often takes upwards of a day to recover. The traders, however, never stop trading, and even in our small community, there are not enough viable trade routes to go around.
With the increases to ship costs, people need money more than ever. But when the market is essentially monopolized by a dozen or so people, players turn to more stable alternatives to get their cash. In short, people aren't trading or mining much anymore, because there's no money in it (why bother when you can just do an escort mission?).
I don't pretend to know a whole lot about the matter, but here's my thoughts about how the situation might be improved upon:
Basic, low-margin goods (aquean, carbonic, hydrocarbons, etc) should be exceptionally robust. It should take tens (or even hundreds!) of thousands of cu's to depress the market for these--after all, a trader isn't going to make much off of these even if they're selling for maximum profit all the time. Furthermore, these goods should recover within minutes, rather than hours, to simulate a constant demand for these essentials.
As the profit margin increases, the robustness of the market for that commodity should decrease, and the market should take longer to collapse. In this sense, shipping consumer electronics or mining ishik will turn a faster profit than transporting water or mining silicate, but the market will be less stable.
Eventually, when you get to the goods with the highest potential margins (like heliocene or pre-nerf sedina chocolates), then we come to the figures we have now: two XC's loads before the market collapses if you're lucky, and at least a day to recover.
In brief; high-margin goods will earn money faster, but have a lower fall-off, while "cheaper" goods would be better for the endless daily grind. Also, by scaling to a potentially larger player-base, the illusion of a large universe is perpetuated, which helps immersion, and there is room for expansion.
[[I'd be happy to hear people's comments on this. Mind you, I haven't accounted for outside factors like the border turrets and the like; I'll post about the effect those have later!)]]
The fact of the matter is that in the dynamic economy, the demand for goods is not particularly robust; after a few moth-loads, the bottom of the market falls out, and it often takes upwards of a day to recover. The traders, however, never stop trading, and even in our small community, there are not enough viable trade routes to go around.
With the increases to ship costs, people need money more than ever. But when the market is essentially monopolized by a dozen or so people, players turn to more stable alternatives to get their cash. In short, people aren't trading or mining much anymore, because there's no money in it (why bother when you can just do an escort mission?).
I don't pretend to know a whole lot about the matter, but here's my thoughts about how the situation might be improved upon:
Basic, low-margin goods (aquean, carbonic, hydrocarbons, etc) should be exceptionally robust. It should take tens (or even hundreds!) of thousands of cu's to depress the market for these--after all, a trader isn't going to make much off of these even if they're selling for maximum profit all the time. Furthermore, these goods should recover within minutes, rather than hours, to simulate a constant demand for these essentials.
As the profit margin increases, the robustness of the market for that commodity should decrease, and the market should take longer to collapse. In this sense, shipping consumer electronics or mining ishik will turn a faster profit than transporting water or mining silicate, but the market will be less stable.
Eventually, when you get to the goods with the highest potential margins (like heliocene or pre-nerf sedina chocolates), then we come to the figures we have now: two XC's loads before the market collapses if you're lucky, and at least a day to recover.
In brief; high-margin goods will earn money faster, but have a lower fall-off, while "cheaper" goods would be better for the endless daily grind. Also, by scaling to a potentially larger player-base, the illusion of a large universe is perpetuated, which helps immersion, and there is room for expansion.
[[I'd be happy to hear people's comments on this. Mind you, I haven't accounted for outside factors like the border turrets and the like; I'll post about the effect those have later!)]]
I have been working on a trade database and noticing little bits about how this works.
In general the commodity don't drop off to fast. The trouble for most people is that they like to run THE SAME stuff over and over. They is plenty of trade, even in just one capitol system. You just need to be a little smarter then buying just one item and running 200 of it to the same few stations. Yeah it isn't "easy" as it once was. But you can still make a lot of credits in a short days work.
And the ship expense only really applies to the extreme "high-end" ships. Like the greyhound and variants of the valks. Otherwise average cost of a ship with add-ons and bat will run from 20,000 to 90,000. Which you can make in one trade run. Not even running "high profit" items.
The economy is being adjusted. So changes will be coming. Yes, there is few "static" routes. But that just means you need to adjust to what you need to trade. And not get stuck in a rut.
In general the commodity don't drop off to fast. The trouble for most people is that they like to run THE SAME stuff over and over. They is plenty of trade, even in just one capitol system. You just need to be a little smarter then buying just one item and running 200 of it to the same few stations. Yeah it isn't "easy" as it once was. But you can still make a lot of credits in a short days work.
And the ship expense only really applies to the extreme "high-end" ships. Like the greyhound and variants of the valks. Otherwise average cost of a ship with add-ons and bat will run from 20,000 to 90,000. Which you can make in one trade run. Not even running "high profit" items.
The economy is being adjusted. So changes will be coming. Yes, there is few "static" routes. But that just means you need to adjust to what you need to trade. And not get stuck in a rut.
You're exactly right, Gulain. Traders who study the market do well.
I won't disagree that traders who study the market are going to make more money than players who don't, but the fact of the matter is that they aren't an appropriate base-line because A) They have access to information that others wouldn't have immediate access to and B) everyone, trader or otherwise, needs cash.
For the moment, non-traders have managed to compensate by taking Escort missions. However, the devs have stated intent (on multiple occasions!) that they intend to fix the ostensibly 'broken' monetary reward. Yes, it is indeed unreasonable to show up in Greyhounds or Valkyries on a regular basis, however, no serious duelist is going to be caught dead in a mark 1 variant. And those mid-level ships still cost money.
But I am rambling and I really need to get back the crux of the matter.
The point is, I'm not suggesting we change the amount of money that can be made, but rather the market fall-off. The trader-types who are 'doing well', as you put it, are already getting the most out of those high-end goods (and perhaps some mid-range stuff), and would be largely unaffected by this sort of shift. It would help everyone else, though, since there would be a stable underlying market for non-traders to fall back on.
You know how nobody trades in aquean unless they're an NPC or doing a mission? Thats because there's no money in it. And this goes for a great deal of low-end goods; they're simply written-off. There are a lot fewer goods traded out there than there should be. I'm saying that there should be a stable market for this sort of stuff; profits would still be abysmal, but there would be less concern of someone crashing the market at your destination before you arrive.
Low-risk commodities have a low pay-out (and vice versa); high-risk commodities have a high (potential) pay-out. A person who trades in low-risk goods isn't going to make much money, or very quickly, but they're going to earn a steady wage. A person who trades in high-risk goods will make more money, but they will need to study the market to prosper. This sort of risk vs reward dynamic really isn't seen in the current economy, as the only visible difference between the commodities is how much profit can be made per cu.
Do you see where I'm coming from here?
For the moment, non-traders have managed to compensate by taking Escort missions. However, the devs have stated intent (on multiple occasions!) that they intend to fix the ostensibly 'broken' monetary reward. Yes, it is indeed unreasonable to show up in Greyhounds or Valkyries on a regular basis, however, no serious duelist is going to be caught dead in a mark 1 variant. And those mid-level ships still cost money.
But I am rambling and I really need to get back the crux of the matter.
The point is, I'm not suggesting we change the amount of money that can be made, but rather the market fall-off. The trader-types who are 'doing well', as you put it, are already getting the most out of those high-end goods (and perhaps some mid-range stuff), and would be largely unaffected by this sort of shift. It would help everyone else, though, since there would be a stable underlying market for non-traders to fall back on.
You know how nobody trades in aquean unless they're an NPC or doing a mission? Thats because there's no money in it. And this goes for a great deal of low-end goods; they're simply written-off. There are a lot fewer goods traded out there than there should be. I'm saying that there should be a stable market for this sort of stuff; profits would still be abysmal, but there would be less concern of someone crashing the market at your destination before you arrive.
Low-risk commodities have a low pay-out (and vice versa); high-risk commodities have a high (potential) pay-out. A person who trades in low-risk goods isn't going to make much money, or very quickly, but they're going to earn a steady wage. A person who trades in high-risk goods will make more money, but they will need to study the market to prosper. This sort of risk vs reward dynamic really isn't seen in the current economy, as the only visible difference between the commodities is how much profit can be made per cu.
Do you see where I'm coming from here?
As far as I can tell they do have something to that effect already in place. It is just no one trades in the low stuff. Everyone speaks of the gun running and high profit runs. The low end stuff does turn a profit, and seems to have a low drop off. Part of the trouble though is since no one trades the "low-end" stuff few people know where the routes are. And the profit pull is only really a few credits. The Margin is where the imbalance is mostly, between the low and high end profits.
http://www.vendetta-online.com/x/msgboard/1/20451
Note the graphs I made here, this is the current model and also note the half life is around 200-400 units, or 2 XC loads. Bad part about this is it could take a person more time to figure out the route than to move the goods. Reasonable to say loosing battle and not that rewarding on the game play side of things.
I have said for some time that some type of trade database built into interface is needed. Maybe not to the level that TA is but something to keep track of things.
Low value items, esp in ore is still used for the badge, may not be used to gain good profits from but to gain badges like basic miner IV you wont go wrong by including those items.
Note the graphs I made here, this is the current model and also note the half life is around 200-400 units, or 2 XC loads. Bad part about this is it could take a person more time to figure out the route than to move the goods. Reasonable to say loosing battle and not that rewarding on the game play side of things.
I have said for some time that some type of trade database built into interface is needed. Maybe not to the level that TA is but something to keep track of things.
Low value items, esp in ore is still used for the badge, may not be used to gain good profits from but to gain badges like basic miner IV you wont go wrong by including those items.